Identifying third-year physical therapy students "at risk" for failing the National Physical Therapy Examination (NPTE) on the first attempt
Purpose: The purpose of this analysis was to retrospectively analyze student performance on the NPTE from the last ten years in order to identify risk factors for failing NPTE on the first attempt. Going forward, we wish to remediate students in the third-year that are at increased risk for failing NPTE on the first attempt.Methods/Description: We dichotomized whether students passed NPTE on their first attempt, and entered the cumulative grade point average obtained in our Physical Therapy program (cumPTgpa) and Graduate Record Examination (GRE, combined verbal and quantitative) as predictor variables in a logistic regression analysis. Predictors identified as significant by the logistic regression then were entered into a receiver operator curve (ROC) analysis as continuous data with the dichotomized NPTE data. Cut-points were established for each predictor, and values below the specified cut-points were considered "at risk". The number of risk factors were then summed, and students could have 0, 1, or 2 risk factors. Cross-tabulations were computed to show how many students passed or failed NPTE relative to the number of risk factors.Results/Outcomes: We identified 326 graduates from our program that attempted the NPTE over the last ten years. Twenty-four students failed NPTE on the first attempt whereas 302 passed for a collective ten-year first-time pass rate of 92.6%. The ROC analysis identified cut points for cumPTgpa at 3.5 and the GRE at 301, and scores below these values were counted as risk factors. Students with zero summed risk factors all passed NPTE on the first attempt (n=108) and those with only one risk factor had a 95% pass-rate (141 passed and 7 failed). However, those with two risk factors had a 75% first-time pass-rate (53 passed and 17 failed).Conclusions/Relevance to the conference theme: Our Leadership Landscape: Perspectives from the Ground Level to 30,000 Feet: Students with two risk factors were at increased risk for failing NPTE on their first attempt relative to our mean first-time pass rate. This idenfication will allow us to offer remediation for third-year students prior to their attempt at NPTE. It is currently unknown whether other risk factors could be identified to further stratisfy students, and whether such analytics have a place in the admissions process.References: Bruce SL, Crawford E, Wilkerson GB, Rausch D, Dale RB, Harris M. Prediction Modeling for Academic Success in Professional Master’s Athletic Training Programs. Athletic Training Education Journal. 2016;11(4):194-207. doi:10.4085/1104194